Archive for July, 2007
It was only a matter of time... The can now be displayed in a whole new way... as a belt buckle. It's called the "." The design is pretty cool, actually. I won't be wearing one anytime soon, but I'm sure cool kids all over the country will be pretty soon. I tell ya, I've gotta come up with some sorta crazy fad belt buckle and market the idea. Maybe the cell phone holster/belt buckle. Or the watch buckle. Turns out, surprise, surprise, there's a whole huge cottage industry of belt buckles. There's the ever-popular-with-the-cool-kids-in-the-big-cities . There's the buckle. And my new favorite, the . Listen to the inventor's spiel... It's hilarious. A couple favorite lines... "... or slapping a bad guy in the face or poking his eyes out." "Watch my hands. Tell me when it gets too hard." "Reaching for your knife right now would be like committing suicide." And, BTW, I think he says, "Buck" (i.e., the knife manufacturer) and not that other word.
fait son petit bonhomme de chemin sur la toile avec un premier passage chez et maintenant chez
This was another week of widespread bullish trader enthusiasm restrained somewhat by the continued sell-off of parts of the Financial sector. As long as the Financials sink, so too will the rest of the broad market. It's just a matter of time. That’s the flip side of the coin. Well actually, that is not a good analogy. It’s more so the downside of printing paper money at excessive rates, so they can blame themselves. At it was, according to reports, “the G-7 finance ministers pledged to make structural reforms in their own economies to reduce the yawning trade gaps and called on China to do more to introduce flexibility into its currency system, which U.S. manufacturers believe is necessary to curb China's huge trade surpluses. All of the talks were being overshadowed by the World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz controversy and his involvement in a huge pay raise awarded to a close female friend.� So, the US has needed those other G-7 monetary authorities to help the cause by selling gold to keep the price from zooming to four-digit values. And, I am sure that another one of those structural changes is to reduce their cross currency rates against the $USD, which (as they weaken their own currency by printing more Euro’s, Yen and Pounds) would boost gold prices, which in turn they would try to counter with further gold sales. But give this concept some extra thought: where, after deciding to fight a war with no new taxes, would the US be today if those other countries didn’t print money as fast as the US? Those other currencies would otherwise be, without doubt, much stronger and the $USD weaker still, and global inflation would be imported straight to the good ol’ USA. In any case, this issue will not go away until the US economy regains its health, and that’s not going to happen as long as the debt bubble continues to grow. On the matter of Wolfowitz, it’s a disappointment that a person so capable and accomplished as he is (or appears to be) has seen fit to destroy the confidence of his staff at the World Bank. Leaders on the world stage like Wolfowitz have to realize that they are role models for society, and when their direct staff calls the boss’s personal behavior “shocking�, then it’s time for them to go. This is no longer a matter of the Old Boys Network being able to help the man. In the INITIAL report on Saturday morning, I wrote, “I will be out for meetings with VIP’s from the Caribbean, and so will not likely finish this report until Sunday morning.� John then wrote to say, “I hope these VIP's include your Bahamian fishing guide, boat captain, scuba guide, and other Bahamian friends. Enjoy your day.� Actually, it was the President of a university and the ex-Deputy Chair and CEO of a major Caribbean bank. We are planning something special. More later. Global Market Summary International Equities: Except for Japan, most international markets were firm this week. India rebounded. U.S. Equities : Thanks largely to Friday (especially the afternoon), the broad indices in the US gained between +0.6 pct and +0.8 pct W/W. These indexes are still falling will behind the Precious Metal price increases as traders seem to have things figured out. Dow 30 : The Dow 30 average lifted +0.41 pct to 12612, which is only +52 points, and there were 17 components up and 13 down this week, but without the hype on Friday afternoon (MRK and MCD for two), the week was listless. U.S. Sector ETFs: There were eight US sector ETF’s up this week, one flat and one (XLF) down. The Financials are usually the sector rotation leaders, and they have been the worst performers so far this year. First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending Bonds: “The US Bond market dropped a little as bond traders don’t know where to turn. Was that US PPI up +1.0 pct M/M (over +12 pct Y/Y) or was it flat? If you can believe the core number, inflation is in check. Outside of Washington, how many believe that story? With a longer time horizon, the bond market isn’t as easily duped. Commodities: Crude oil (both West Texas and Brent) lifted, and so did $CRB. But the week’s gain in $CRB was modest (+0.10 pct), and only helped by Friday’s trades (+0.2 pct). Traders are now awaiting those measures the G-7 finance ministers and central bankers were talking about in their communiqué. Maybe China will speak first! Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures gained +2.05/bbl (+3.2 pct W/W) to 66.33, and Brent is close to 70. This is above the upper end of the 55-65 band and is a prime driver of stagflation. Gold: The Precious Metals continue to gain. $GOLD was up +10.50 (+1.6 pct) on the week to 689.90, making it a rally of +32.60 (+5.0 pct) over three weeks. Reflects the falling $USD, inflation concerns and money printing needed to support the stock and bond markets. But, you heard that here last week too. Next step is to see what the G-7 leaders really decided because $GOLD is rising faster than $USD is falling, which means that the world is quickly losing confidence in the $USD and in government-produced inflation data. Goldminers: The goldminers rallied hard, gaining about +3.0 pct on two of the three main goldminer indexes. Using W/W closing prices, the $XAU has rallied from 137 to 147 (+7.3 pct) in two weeks. Traders are starting to discount the higher gold prices into the goldminer stocks, which means they are starting to believe that $GOLD will soon move to a higher trading range. Forex: Once again, the $USD dropped, this week by -0.7 pct and the Euro gained +0.8 pct. That’s even more than last week. Using W/W closing prices, the $USD has fallen from 82.30 to 81.17 (-1.74 pct) in three weeks. Economics: Economic calendar for next week. Econoday weekly report. Cara 100 Stockwatch Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday. Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday. Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link) Here are the stocks of the Cara 100 for Friday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and lows. Sector ETF Summary The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only. As for this week’s prices, of the ten sector ETF’s I follow here, eight were up this week, one flat and one down. The Financials (XLF) were the back markers on the track. Is it time to black flag them or do they get to go round the track a few more weeks (to help the insiders get off the last of their stock) before the Big Bear pays a long-overdue visit? The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N. Table 1: Cara ETF List You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total. For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast. 10 (energy: XLE) 15 (basic materials: XLB) 20 (industrial: XLI) 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY) 30 (consumer staples: XLP) 35 (healthcare: IYH) 40 (financial: XLF) 45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH) 50 (telecom: IYZ) 55 (utilities: XLU) Individual Sector ETF Review Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC) This week, XLE gained +2.11 pct W/W to close Friday at 63.05. Interestingly, the near futures contracts ($WTIC) were up +4.5 pct W/W, so perhaps traders are thinking the oil price may come back down or they are concerned that the US stock market is over-bought. Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: XLE Monthly data: XLE Weekly data: XLE Daily data: Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities Big Oil gained again this week, but there were some losses. ExxonMobil (XOM) was flat, but some of the foreign-friendlies were up. The latter were more in tune with the increase of West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude this week. Canada’s Suncor, Imperial Oil and EnCana gained +6.2 pct, +4.3 pct and +3.8 pct respectively W/W. Petro Brazil gained +3.7 pct. Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW) The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) gained +1.09 pct W/W to close at 38.88. Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: XLB Monthly data: XLB Weekly data: XLB Daily data: Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities: The steels, including Tenaris (+5.1 pct) and Gerdau (+3.6 pct) and the base metals, including CVRD (+3.8 pct), Teck (+3.4 pct) and Rio Tinto (+3.3 pct) were strong. Gold Fields (+4.0 pct), Goldcorp (+3.4 pct) and Kinross (+3.3 pct) were strong among the gold miners. I think the fact that Barrick and Newmont shares are relative under-performers is that the big fund managers recognize their weaker fundamentals compared to the Kinrosses, for example, and particularly the reserve replacement issue. I continue to believe that the best relative value is in smaller miners and developers that will commission new mines in the next five years. That’s the thing about gold and silver; they are storehouses of value whose prices rise constantly over the generations as governments print money that too often does not create offsetting wealth. So the timing of extracting the proven in-situ resource is only a matter of a present value calculation. The value is always there. Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT) The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, managed a gain of +0.64 pct to close at 36.06. Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: XLI Monthly data: XLI Weekly data: XLI Daily data: Senior capital goods makers and transportation: Most of the US Industrial conglomerates are not doing so well. GE, however, did have a good quarterly report and gained +1.0 pct W/W, aided by Friday’s gain of +0.6 pct. Last week I wrote that Colin Twiggs (www.incrediblecharts.com) was “looking for a move higher here in the Dow Transports (4917) that will challenge resistance at 5000.� With a close of 5035, he now opines that the Bull market trend was technically confirmed. Fedex and UPS, however, are not showing signs of recovering (see charts below). It has been a tough two months for FDX and five months for UPS. Compared to UPS, the FDX chart shows little support below these levels. So, if you are one of those believers in Dow Theory Bull/Bear confirmations of the Industrials by the Transports, or at least feel that the Transport stocks are effective leading economic indicators, I’d keep a close watch FDX here. As a Dow Theory technical signal, I no longer look at the Dow Transports. I prefer to look directly at global transporters Fedex (FDX) and UPS (UPS), which had another tough week, and seem to be signaling econ problems in the quarter or two ahead. I happen to think that the Dow Transports moved higher as and when Warren Buffett’s Berkshire (BRK) made a major acquisition in the railroad industry (10.9 pct of Burlington Northern Santa Fe BNI), and traders hopped aboard other trains and transport. For short-term traders (ie, unlike Buffett), I’d be careful with BNI here. The average price on a volume basis is about 78 in the past ten months, but the price has zoomed in the past month from 77 to 92 (closing Friday at 90.69). Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR) The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) had a gain of +0.08 pct on Friday, which helped save the week as XLY only gained a wooden nickel (+0.13 pct W/W) to close at 38.90. Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: XLY Monthly data: XLY Weekly data: XLY Daily data: Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), down -3.9 pct W/W, and -6.5 pct over 2 weeks and -10.2 pct YTD, is a reflection only of the falling $USD, which makes exports from Japan more expensive. Toyota makes more money when the $USD is strong. The TM:$USD pairs trade seems to be popular with the hedge funds. Maybe it reverses next week? Maybe the $USD has a brief rally, taking TM up with it. But, I still see downside ahead for the $USD. Ebay (NDQ:EBAY) gained +3.2 pct and Whirlpool (NYSE:WHR) was up +2.9 pct on the week. (Cara 100) Ebay has an effective business model, particularly during economic slowdowns and recessions where people tend to sell stuff for money. As for household appliances at this point, I don’t get it. But the rest of my GICS 25 sector watchlist were losers, especially Brunswick Corp(NYSE:BC), which I gather is having trouble getting Sub-prime financing for its sales of boats. Brunswick Corp is one to watch. Every few years the boat manufacturing industry goes down the tubes as the economy slows and bank credit tightens. Here's a short article on Brunswick that has a different take. Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK) The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was flat W/W to close at $27.09. This ETF would have been a big loser except for Friday’s gain of +1.92 pct. With the flood of capital going into gold stocks on Friday, I guess other traders got nervous and switched to defense. Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: XLP Monthly data: XLP Weekly data: XLP Daily data: Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities The beer makers (ABV and BUD) were up +3.1 pct and +2.0 pct respectively. The chant D-E-F-E-N-S-E… D-E-F-E-N-S-E goes on. Other than for family gatherings, I cannot recall the last time I bought a case of beer. As I see it, most of us are using red W-I-N-E, for strictly medicinal reasons of course. You can put Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) in either the GICS 25 or 30 classification depending on whether you see people with disposable income willing to dispose of it there or whether you see shoppers there who are trying to get to the end of the month not a dollar short and a day late, hence buying their staples. I chose the latter, but I can understand why others link WMT to the consumer discretionary spending sector. In any case, WMT was the worst performer in the Dow 30 this week, going down -1.78 pct. And, clearly a defensive stock, MO (that terrible name Altria, which goes hand in hand with their terrible health destroying cigarettes) was down -1.68 pct, for second worst performer on the week. Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB) The IYH healthcare ETF was the number one ETF performer in my list of ten for the second consecutive week. How often has that happened? Not too much that I can recall. Something’s up (on Wall Street). IYH gained +2.11 pct W/W (+5.0 pct over two weeks) to close at 70.08. As I see it, Wall Street prop desks are clearing their inventory before the May Day Sale. Possibly they are setting up for a blockbuster deal – before May Day! Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: IYH Monthly data: IYH Weekly data: IYH Daily data: Table 7: Senior healthcare equities In a letter to me entitled “The rebirth of Merck�, I see that at least one reader clued in to what has been happening in stock markets that has traders to continuously lose money or at the very least to earn less than they ought to. Bill, I remember reading your blog during the darkest days of the Merck Vioxx debacle, when the stock was being universally shunned by The Street, that MRK had reached your accumulation point (2004/2005)? ...while at the very same time Jim Cramer was stating emphatically that MRK was a strong sell, and could conceivably disappear under an avalanche of lawsuits (my words). Now Cramer seems quite comfortable with MRK, after a 20+ point move off the bottom, and an excellent two year return for people who were reading your blog back then. And,Goldman Sachs saw fit yesterday to upgrade MRK from a sell after this tremendous run, with a public apology attached to their recommendation. Now, is it time to trim my gains when everybody else is seeing blue skies ahead? Or, hold for the momentum crowd? Thanks. David Yes, David, you have it right. After two or three years, take your gains. Just study prices when they hit the Accumulation Zone and Distribution Zone. And, don’t worry trying to pick cycle tops and bottoms. Btw, did you see the volume in MRK in the 4Q04 with the price below 30 as traders (including mostly professional fund managers) were throwing the stock away as it hit the Cara Accumulation Zone? So Merck rocketed +10.3 pct on the week, closing at $50.21, and Pfizer was up +3.2 pct and Glaxo +3.3 pct. But wasn’t this all Wall Street hype on Friday? On Friday, Bristol Myers jumped +2.8 pct, which made a gain of +1.8 pct on the week. And, Amgen was up +2.4 pct on the day, carrying the stock to a gain of +1.2 pct on the week. Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF) The Financials ETF (XLF) dropped –0.17 pct W/W to close at 35.70, which is just 6 cents on the week, but Friday there was a gain of +0.42 pct on the day to save the week from being a really bad one. Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: XLF Monthly data: XLF Weekly data: XLF Daily data: Table 8: Senior financial company equities Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) were at the bottom of the performer list this week (losing -0.7 pct and -0.4 pct respectively). I guess they didn’t like the phone calls from Paulson and Bernanke from Friday’s G-7 meeting. Isn’t it interesting that the sector leaders were the foreign banks, Deutsche Bank (+3.4 pct), HSBC (+2.4 pct) and Credit Suisse (+1.7 pct)! The cycle peak seems to have been in February for the HB&B units. But, just like the chart above, the one below shows how foreign banks (in this case RBC) have been outperforming the US banks. Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH) This week SMH gained +0.67 pct to close at 34.47. Do I believe the chips are ready to come out of the dip? No. Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: SMH Monthly data: SMH Weekly data: SMH Daily data: Table 9: Senior technology equities India’s Infosys had a terrific week, adding +6.0 pct. The aforementioned Intel gained +4.5 pct. German software giant SAP gained +2.8 pct on the week, but was up +3.1 pct on Friday. Cisco jumped +2.4 pct W/W, but was up +2.7 pct on Friday. So what happened Friday to boost the share prices of a select few? I don’t see much. Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP) The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was also saved by a gain of +0.44 pct on Friday. The whole week was only a gain of +0.19 pct. Verizon dropped -1.6 pct and AT&T lost -1.1 pct. A week ago I opined, “If there is to be a break-down in these two stocks, I look to VZ to lead the way (down) on the basis that T has had a stronger RSI and seems to be the trader favorite. Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: IYZ Monthly data: IYZ Weekly data: IYZ Daily data: Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU) The Utilities ETF (XLU) were flat on the week, closing at 40.72 (actually a gain of 2 cents). Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: XLU Monthly data: XLU Weekly data: XLU Daily data: Bond & Interest Rate Review US Treasury bonds dropped a little in price this week as the yields lifted +1, +1, +2 and +5 basis points (bp) to 4.91 pct, 4.74 pct, 4.66 pct and 4.74 pct respectively on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper. Note that the spread between the 2-year and 3-month Treasuries has dipped from -30 bp to -10 bp this week from two weeks ago as the T-Bill yield dropped -2 bp from 4.88 pct to 4.86 a week ago to 4.84 this week. So capital is going quite short-term, signifying concern for capital markets at the moment. And as the bond market is falling, the inflation hedge TIPS are declining relatively less. This continues to be my rationale that traders are betting on stagflation, not recession and deflation. The fact that the metals and precious metals prices lifted again this week shows me more of the same. The TLT dropped -0.72 pct W/W to close at 87.12. A week ago I wrote, “As you know I have been focusing on (bonds). The question seems to be ‘how low can TLT go?’� As I wrote last week, That really is an important question because the lower TLT goes, the higher goes the yield. That higher yield will attract equity traders who seek high fixed income, and it will also cause further problems for the US mortgage and housing industry. So unless the US economy really picks up here and starts to put more money in more pockets and more taxes to government, the Treasury/Fed will have to be printing more money, which will further depress the $USD, bringing more inflation and higher precious metal prices. And if the $USD continues to drop, the foreign investors of US bonds will say ‘heck with this; I don’t want to be repaid in wooden nickels’. So they’ll sell those bonds before maturity, which will raise yields even more. This is an economic death spiral. Ultimately everything from bonds to stocks to the economy gets sicker until really bad things start to happen – like rising unemployment, higher taxes, higher cost of living, greater need to extract and rely upon past savings, and so on. I think you can see that the bond market is crucial to the future of America at this point and that its future is inextricably linked to the $USD. Interest rates and bond yields. Weekly data charts: Interactive Daily data charts: Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields. Fannie (FNM) (-0.7 pct) and Countrywide Financial (CFC) (-0.1 pct W/W) are still losers, basically, I think, for economic reasons at this point. Part of the reason is inflation/higher bond yields and part of it is a slowing economy. US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts SHY Monthly data series chart: IEF Monthly data series chart: TLT Monthly data series chart: AGG Monthly data series chart: LQD Monthly data series chart: TIP Monthly data series chart: US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts SHY Weekly data series chart: IEF Weekly data series chart: TLT Weekly data series chart: AGG Weekly data series chart: LQD Weekly data series chart: TIP Weekly data series chart: US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts SHY Daily data series chart: IEF Daily data series chart: TLT Daily data series chart: AGG Daily data series chart: LQD Daily data series chart: TIP Daily data series chart: Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities I put a link on the side bar to www.thehousingbubbleblog.com, which seems to offer solid insights as to what really is happening across America with respect to housing and mortgages. Typically these have offered a comfort zone, but that’s not the case at present. Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts I have continuously warned readers they ought to consider the downside of Countrywide Financial in a slowing economy, lousy housing market and rising interest rate environment. CFC is now down -20.1 pct YTD. Commodities Review The Commodities Index ($CRB) gained a bit this week +0.33 (+0.10 pct), closing at 317.93. For two weeks now, that is not much of a gain. The prices of oil, metals and precious metals lifted quite a bit this week. It could be that $CRB moves higher next week, unless the $USD has a bounce. $CRB (317.93) is now sitting above the (new) 200-day MA line (315.24). The lower the $USD falls, the higher $CRB will go. Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index: Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index: Oil: This week, $WTIC lifted +2.05/bbl (+3.19 pct W/W) to close at 66.33. Brent Crude (Europe) is now close to 70. The $WTIC 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 61.17, while the 200-Day MA is 63.64. Hence the current price (66.33) is bullish. Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil: Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil: Gold: This week, thanks to a bump (+1.50 pct) on Friday, $GOLD gained +10.50/oz (+1.55 pct W/W) to close at 689.90. That’s a bump of +32.60 in three weeks. The 50-day MA is now at 665.62 and the more important 200-day MA is at 632.11. So $GOLD at 689.90 is very bullish. All the Precious Metals were on the rise this week. Not even a booming US Jobs Report the previous Friday or the +1.0 gain M/M in the US PPI, could hold back the rising price of precious metals. That’s because traders know that the Fed cannot raise rates at this point for fear of destroying the US housing and mortgage industries. Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index. This week, $SILVER gained $0.35 (+2.55 pct) to close at 14.09. That’s a gain of +0.75 in three weeks. Talk about a silver bullet! The 50-day MA is 13.60 and the 200-day MA at 12.59, so the current price at 14.09 is now technically strongly Bullish. Interactive 60-minute data Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index. $PLAT gained +19.90 (+1.57 pct) W/W to 1285.10. It closed the week on March 10 (my wife’s birthday) at 1208.00 (+6.4 pct). I tell her to stick to silver (she won that silver bar at PDAC-06 you know) because $SILVER has rallied +8.6 pct since her birthday. The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1229.73 and the 200-Day MA is 1189.52, so $PLAT is solidly Bullish. Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index. Re $PALL, you know that a week ago in this space I wrote, To me, the ($PALL) chart still looks ready to break out on the upside after trading in a tightly controlled band for the past few weeks. The recent short-term cycle high of 359.72 or the long-term cycle high of 362.43 are close enough to be taken out any day now.$PALL lost -0.51 (-0.14 pct) W/W to close at 356.80, which is a small bit. The Thursday trade was a gain of +0.65 pct. How good is that! This week $PALL closed at $381.90, up 25.10 (+7.03 pct W/W). The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 353.38 and 334.65 respectively, which is now well below the current price, which means palladium is technically quite bullish. There has been a bullish pattern here since early October (290.88). Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index. Base metals continue to be very strong. $COPPER gained +15.90 (+4.71 pct) W/W to close at 353.60, which is another huge move. $COPPER contracts have moved up +27.0 pct since my wife’s birthday (March 10). Do you think she’ll take copper for that silver bar? The 50-day MA for $COPPER is 289.97, and the 200-Day MA is 316.07. So, at 353.60, $COPPER is now very bullish. I think this move like uranium has a lot to do with supply being kept off the market. Re uranium, here is a link sent by “da_bombshell� that explains how the uranium spot price is calculated. Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index: Interactive chart of the Copper metal index. Table 12: Senior gold equities Base metal stocks (RIO +3.8 pct and RTP +3.3 pct) enjoyed another good week, although not as outstanding as the previous week. Many of the senior goldminers did also. Gold Fields (GFI +4.4 pct this week after being up +5.2 pct the previous week) was a leader. To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows: NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF: SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN Interactive Daily data $XAU, GDX and (TSE’s) XGD were all up strongly again this week, going up +3.09 pct, +2.87 pct and +1.25 pct respectively after the previous week’s gains of +4.09 pct, +4.04 pct, and +4.07 pct, respectively. But this week was really about Friday, which was the day the G-7 finance ministers and central bankers met in Washington, and the $USD continued its journey south. The $XAU index gained +4.41 (+3.09 pct) to close at 147.02. The 50d-MA (138.92) and 200d-MA (138.18) are now both well below the current price (147.02), which means that the PM stocks are now technically very bullish. Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes: Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index: Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index: Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index: The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX. Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts: GDX Weekly data: GDX Daily data: The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index: Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data: Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data: Many have written to thank me for pointing them to the junior miners and the exploration plays on the market. Thank you for thanking me. I hope you realize that this part of the market is the most hyped, often least rewarding, and always most dangerous to trade. I am bringing up some names because (i) I believe they are some of the best high-risk opportunities based on my knowledge and insights, and (ii) I cannot be “bought-and-paid-for� so the info you get is quite different than most of what you read elsewhere – it’s objectively written with the sole desire to help you steer clear of the minefields. When I was a licensed financial advisor in the 1980’s, I must admit to losing my share too on these penny miners. But, in my case it was because I was getting too close to the situation, and I would hold on too long, always hoping for the next successful drill hole or whatever. Later, I discovered that objective and independent thinking always works best. So, no matter what I knew about a company, I learned that trading prices was the most effective approach. And, in the case of the penny stocks, I found that volume was also a crucial piece of information. That’s not to say I would ever ignore good info from experts – as long as there was a distance between my so-called expert and the hype machine that surrounds all companies in the capital raise-up business. After I put out my article on Friday taking note that I would look into Guyana Gold and Alamos Gold more closely, I received the following piece of info that I wish to share. The source is a good one. Hi Bill, When you are looking further at T.GUY make sure you also look at the V.ARK back-in agreement with GUY and the V.WSR earn-in agreement on the Peters mine property. The Aranka V.ARK is an extremely promising concession about 20km up river from the Aurora camp. The property is the scene of intense artisanal surface hydaulic mining. Hard to put a number on production, but the porkknockers (Guyanese term for artisanal miners) are probably pulling 20,000 oz/au a year. The Company appears to be getting ready to put a drill on the most promising targets. A lift in the ARK price will spill into GUY. V.WSR is drilling the Peters as we speak. The Peters Mine property is the original asset in the company from 10 years ago. The company became distracted from it with the success of Rory's Knoll et cetera at Aurora camp a few years ago It all same management, geos, drillers and infrastructure. Cheers, Aranka, as I see it, is potentially the most exciting greenfields exploration today in the Guyanese Shield that stretches through Venezuela too. I have a lot of confidence the Company will make a mineable discovery there. Also, I want to point readers to the importance of Point & Figure charts for determining technical break-outs. In the past week or so there has been a large number of upside break-outs among the gold miners and developers I have been writing about. Large companies and small. Owner-operators working in various parts of the world. This is significant. Kinross is my current pick among the large cap goldminers. The stock (KGC/K.TO) hasn’t broken out, but I expect it to soon. Here is a recent interview of the Kinross CEO by TheStreet.com. If you can't find it, do a search of Kinross. Also, as you know, back on Jan. 12 (before the open), I gave readers a list of 20 gold and silver stocks to consider. Proof of concept: Those 20 gold stocks – from the large cap to the ultra small cap – are up +20.0 pct in 90 days whereas the Dow 30 index is up +0.78 pct. Forex Review The $USD closed at 82.17, a loss of -0.54 (-0.65 pct) W/W. The $USD 50-Day MA is now 83.69, and the 200-Day MA is 84.80, so the current price (82.17) is technically quite bearish. The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week. M3 is growing at an excessive rate in order to pay for a war and for govt deficits not matched by taxes, although the annualized rate of change has dropped a bit. The yield curve in the charts at the last link appears to be ending the period of downward sloping, but I question whether that happens to be caused by an economic strengthening or (more likely in my view) a move out of longer term maturities because of fear of (i) stagflation, and (ii) the falling $USD going even more negative. Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index: Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index: The Euro (priced in USD) had another big increase on the week, gaining +1.12 (+0.83 pct W/W), closing at 135.36. A week ago I opined in this space: “After a small pull-back early in the week, I expect another rally in the Euro. Any higher, say above 135, and I expect a significant move higher in precious metals prices.� Ka boom. As the Euro popped late in the week, so too did $GOLD (to $689.90). The $XEU 50-Day MA is 132.16, and the 200-Day MA is 129.30, so the current price (135.36) is technically very bullish. Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD: Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD: The British Pound gained +1.47 (+0.75 pct W/W) to close at 198.58. I gather the world wants to own a piece of London with developed real estate selling at over $2,000 per square foot. Shades of Tokyo about 17 years ago – before the collapse. This time, I figure that if, as and when $GOLD reverses its bullish trend, so too will London real estate prices. You see, there are more than 40 billionaires living in London, most of them from the Middle East or Russia where, as the $USD collapses and the British Pound rises, these people are getting richer due to cash flow from oil, metals and precious metal holdings. The $XBP 50-Day MA is 195.70, and the 200-Day MA is 191.55, so the current price (198.58) is technically quite bullish. Weekly British Pound Index: Daily British Pound Index: The Japanese Yen had yet another pull back against the $USD this week (-0.36 pct), closing at 83.92. The 50-Day MA is 84.20, and the 200-Day MA is 84.92, so the current price (83.92) is now short-term and long-term bearish. This is a function, I think, of the Japanese Administration and central bank trying to help out domestic exporters. Weekly Japanese Yen Index: Daily Japanese Yen Index: Weekly Canadian Dollar Index: Daily Canadian Dollar Index: The Canadian Dollar gained +1.03 (+1.18 pct W/W) to close at 87.95. The $CDW 50-Day MA is 85.77, and the 200-Day MA is 87.48, so the current price (87.95) is technically bullish. International Equities Review Most of the international markets had a winning week. The Indian ETF (IFN) recovered and jumped +3.81 pct this week. The Templeton Russia Fund jumped up +1.94 pct, after being up +3.48 pct the previous week, to close at 74.66. The China FXI was up +2.88 pct, after being up +2.65 pct the prior week, to close at 110.08. All eyes are on the China market, wondering with PBOC Governor Dr. Joe is going to do next. The US monetary authorities would like him to crank up the value of the Yuan relative to the $USD, which seemingly would add to inflation in America but apparently the thinking in the White House and Goldman Sachs (excuse me, the Fed and the Treasury Dept) is that a lower $USD will make those “Made In China� products too expensive for (poor) Americans to buy. Then they will, according to this logic, buy American, or go without. And its not the significant percentage of Americans who are below the poverty line who are scratching their heads over the price of gold and silver, and tax loopholes, so this way the White House can also appease the upper-middle class and Friends & Family (excuse me, the rich) who are over the moon with “No new taxes, and higher precious metals prices�. That’s quite a campaign slogan: “Buy American. Don’t pay taxes (if only that were true). Follow the Yellow Brick Road to the White House.� Actually I was navel gazing about the Republican Party nominees for next year’s President’s race, and I gather it comes down to Stronger Economy on the Back of War – take your pick, McCain or Rice – or “A Vote for Guiliani for Crime-free Cities and a Better Quality of Life�. Hmmm, I wonder whom I’d want to vote for to represent the GOP given that Eliot Spitzer isn’t likely to change parties. :-) Whatever it takes, the world needs to have a strong leader in the White House. Either Spitzer or Guiliani would do that, I think. But, would they have to move to Texas? (LOL) The following charts and analysis from Colin Twiggs for Japan, UK and Australia need careful study. He continues to suggest optimism, which goes along with my opinion that the Fed and HB&B are working overtime to hold the international markets high, but I still suggest the best perspective would be that of caution. In fact, for the US broad markets, Colin is advising in this week’s headline, “Key Resistance Levels Ahead�. Commander Twiggs hasn’t steered the wrong course yet, and he is saying, to those who listen, “Buckle Up, there is some challenges ahead.� I’ll take it a step further, and say: “Sell in May and go to Bahamas in June!� Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link) European indices (Interactive link) Table 13: International equities perspective Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) lost -1.16 pct W/W to close at 14.51. Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: Interactive EWJ Monthly data: Interactive EWJ Weekly data: Interactive EWJ Daily data: U.K. equity market ETF: EWU The EWU (UK market ETF trading in the US in USD) gained +1.68 pct to 24.80. Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: Interactive EWU Monthly data: Interactive EWU Weekly data: Interactive EWU Daily data: EWU Daily data: Canadian equity market ETF: EWC EWC (priced in USD) had another big gain (+2.17 pct on the week) to close at 27.34. That’s a gain of +4.5 pct in nine sessions. The TSX Composite hit another new all-time record this week. Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts: Interactive EWC Monthly data: Interactive EWC Weekly data: Interactive EWC Daily data: U.S. Equities Review All broad indexes in the US stock market gained this week, but not as much as the previous week. And if the gains on Friday had been losses, the US markets would have been down on the week. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes gained +0.83 pct and +0.74 pct respectively, while the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 gained +0.63 pct and +0.41 pct on the week. A week ago there were just six losers in Dow 30. This week there were 13, and that number could have easily been 17 or 18 without the late day rally on Friday. Bond yields are continuing to rise however, and the Financials are weak (XLF lost -0.2 pct W/W), so maybe that’s a warning sign. At least it is a “caution required� sign Colin Twiggs has done his usual superb job of positioning the support and resistance levels of the US stock markets. Here is his US stock market chart analysis from www.incrediblecharts.com. He is pointing to resistance ahead. Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes. Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes. Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes. Table 14: Dow 30 List You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG UTX VZ WMT XOM Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three) Dow 30 comments: If you didn’t already, you might wish to review the reports from Value Line, which this week are on four important blue chip companies: General Electric (GE), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC). (GE: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13) (HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13) (IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13) (INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 13: next one is due Jul. 13) GE charts HPQ charts IBM charts INTC charts GE and Intel are Cara 100 companies. They are in long-term cyclic Bear phases. They will be leaders in the next great Bull market. Watch them closely. As long as they stay weak, I don’t think the US stock market is going to set a new record high. And what doesn’t go up… Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
This? Or this?
My iPod died. It MIGHT have something to do with the fact that I've dropped it a All I listen to are audiobooks and some music. Not thousands of songs. I don't know how many songs. But I mainly listen to audiobooks. And a cute little green Nano would be easy to wear around my neck. I don't care about video. But the Resident Storm Chaser is absolutely positively definitely convinced I need the video iPod. And now that I really think about it, I'm not sure 4GB is enough. My old iPod was 20 GB and it never was more than maybe 1/3 full, but that always included several audiobooks that I wasn't listening to any more but just hadn't gotten around to removing.... Anybody got any experience with this decision? Regrets?
I'm cruising around the Internet Tuesday, and I see that the little podcast I co-host, called , has been nominated as one of 10 comedy podcasts up for the 2007 Best Comedy Podcast award at the Web site.
Surprisingly, we've kept our chemistry intact despite the space difference. And some say we're still funny. So, after talking with my co-host, we've decided to give out some "incentive" to encourage podcast listeners to vote in the Awards -- even if you're not voting for BUCKET. Just vote for someone in the comedy category and win some cool prizes. Would a free iPod help? I thought so! Keep reading...
Be watching for an upcoming core presentation of this product at ! -TG
: "Aquafadas has announced the release of PulpMotion 1.2.5, the latest version of its slideshow and presentation tool for Mac OS X..." (Via .) Technorati Tags:
Apple flashed some guidance that has those of us in the contrails of the iPhone launch reading the tea leaves for heady news once again. "Product transition" would normally not garner ANY press. But, it's Apple after all. So, we're all back to the guessing game of what, when, where and how (we don't much care about Why: it's Apple!). Some speculation is the iMac is about to get an aluminum clad look. Others, the iPhone is about to go 6G and inherit multi-touch. Still others are going way out on a limb and suggesting Apple has an ultra secret UMPC up their sleeves. Whatever it is, it's enough for Apple to suggest lowered guidance to the analysts in their last call (which I listened to while it was in progress). Total speculation here, but it might just be Apple is now tending toward pre-announcement of product and is wise enough to tell the analysts - in hushed tones - we're going to announce stuff in one quarter that will tight-hole us till the next. One analyst (Bear Stearns I think) asked why they should put any credence in this guidance since last quarter was such a runaway miss. I love Apple's answer which was basically, Go pound sand, it is what it is. If the rumor mill is worth its salt (and often it's not) then we should be getting a news of the new stuff in the August timeline. One thing is certain, Leopard is going golden master release one of the 31 days in October. The 9A499 seed from Tuesday is SWEET! and once again reminds me... for all the frustrations I have with Apple (there are many)... They have some of the coolest stuff under the hood I've ever had the privilege to bang on.
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Ma da ieri su  si apre una nuova frontiera: Ecco la prima messa in vendita della propria rata del mutuo inserito da sasatitty made in Italy (con 32 positivi) Cosa chiede? "Perchè usare ebay solo per vendere o acquistare?? si può utilizzare anche per aiutare!! Chi ricorda il film di dove per sposare una principessa di non ricordo dove chiede ai romani di dargli una mano versando tutti 10 mila lire che per quattro milioni di abitanti facevano : 40 milioni di lire che servivano al padre della principessa per non fallire il suo regno??
Eminem - Lose Yourself[dailymotion id=iHO1IaVGBelt1Jh9]
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Wow, I'm honored! And surprised! Jen and I do our show from split locations -- me from Stamford, Conn. and Jen from Nowhereville, Pa.
Siamo abituati a leggere su annunci di vendità di ogni genere, come macchine da lusso a 1 euro, i capelli di personaggi famosi (), le maglie dei calciatori ().